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Statistical Models for Prognostication
Author Bio
Introduction
Predictions: Statistical Models
Insight: Statistical Models
Ingredients: Statistical Models
Theoretical Aspects
Currently Selected Section: Central Concepts
Regression Models
Problems: Regression
Practical Advice
Example 1
Example 2
Chapter 8: Statistical Models for Prognostication: Central Concepts in Predictive Modeling
        
The Bootstrap

The bootstrap is a central tool in the validation of predictive models. First, we will briefly address general characteristics of the bootstrap; second, we will address the role of the bootstrap in model development.

The bootstrap is a technique for drawing conclusions about the population where the sample originated in a nonparametric way (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993). A bootstrap sample is a random sample, drawn with a replacement from the data set under study. The size of the bootstrap sample is identical to the size of the original data set. Every patient may be represented in the sample 0, 1, 2, .. times. On average, a patient has a probability of 63.2% of being selected at least once in a bootstrap sample.

Conceptually, drawing a bootstrap sample replicates the situation that the sample is drawn from the underlying population. Statistics can be calculated in every bootstrap sample. The distribution of such statistics is identical to parametric estimates, when formulas are available.

Two different cases - Example #1 and Example #2 -- further illustrate use of the bootstrap."

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