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Statistical Models for Prognostication
Author Bio
Introduction
Predictions: Statistical Models
Insight: Statistical Models
Currently selected section: Ingredients: Statistical Models
Theoretical Aspects
Central Concepts
Regression Models
Problems: Regression
Practical Advice
Example 1
Example 2




Chapter 8: Statistical Models for Prognostication: Ingredients of Statistical Models
        

Types of Regression Models

For continuous variables, linear regression models can be used. Sometimes the outcome scale is transformed, by taking the logarithm, for example, to achieve a better compliance with model assumptions.

For dichotomous variables, logistic regression models are popular (Hosmer and Lemeshow, 1989). They have largely replaced discriminant models in medical applications. A logistic link function is used in the regression formula, such that the regression formula can be written as:

Logit[Prob(outcome)] = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + … + bixi.

Here, a is the intercept, b1 to bi are regression coefficients for i covariables x1 to xi, similar to other regression models. The logit indicates the natural logarithm of the odds of the probability p that the outcome occurs: log(p/(1-p)). Odds ratios can be calculated by exponentiating the coefficients: OR=exp(bi). The relationship between the probability of the outcome and the logit is a characteristic curve.

Figure 4.1: Logistic Link Function
Graphic depiction of logistic link function, described in text.
Illustration of the logistic link function. The relationship between the
probability of an outcome and the logit of the probability is a characteristic curve. The logit is calculated as: ln(probability/(1-probability)). When the logit is 0, the probability is 50%.

 

 

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