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Statistical Models for Prognostication
Author Bio
Introduction
Predictions: Statistical Models
Insight: Statistical Models
Currently selected section: Ingredients: Statistical Models
Theoretical Aspects
Central Concepts
Regression Models
Problems: Regression
Practical Advice
Example 1
Example 2




Chapter 8: Statistical Models for Prognostication: Ingredients of Statistical Models
        

Statistical Models

Regression models are frequently used in medical research. Regression models relate independent variables, denoted as X variables, to a dependent variable, Y. A regression formula can be constructed which takes the form: Y ~ a + biXi, where a denotes a constant or intercept and bi denotes the regression coefficients for the independent variables Xi.

Example
To predict the pain score after one week based on age, sex and pain at admission, where pain is quantified by the score of a standard questionnaire (e.g. McGill pain questionnaire)...

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...the regression formula might look like this:
Pain at 1 week ~ a + b1age + b2sex + b3pain at admission

 

Estimation of the regression formula requires empirical (actual observed) data from individual patients. Statistical packages estimate the regression formula with methods that maximally reduce the deviance between observed and expected value. For linear regression, least squares are calculated and optimized, for other models maximum likelihood estimates are used.

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