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Statistical Models for Prognostication
Author Bio
Introduction
Predictions: Statistical Models
Currently selected section: Insight: Statistical Models
Ingredients: Statistical Models
Theoretical Aspects
Central Concepts
Regression Models
Problems: Regression
Practical Advice
Example 1
Example 2




Chapter 8: Statistical Models for Prognostication: Insight from Statistical Models
        

Relative Importance of Predictors

The relative importance of predictors is reflected in the regression coefficients of a regression model. Interpretation is relatively straightforward for dichotomous variables: the regression coefficient indicates what the effect is of a characteristic's presence, versus its absence. For example, when males are compared to females, the coefficient indicates the difference between males and females, adjusted for the covariables included in the model.

For continuous predictors, the coefficient still indicates the effect of a change in one unit on the outcome. A predictor may cover a wide range, e.g. age between 20 and 65 years, and have a small coefficient per unit, per year, for instance. For comparability we may then contrast the effects at the 75th and 25th percentile, or code the predictor in more relevant units, e.g. age in decades. To see an illustration of the relative importance of predictors, see Example 1: Gallstones and Example 2: HELP Survival Model at the end of this chapter.

The importance of a predictor can be expressed by the standardized regression coefficient, the p-value, or the amount of explained variation. These measures are determined by the magnitude of the regression coefficient and the spread in the predictor. For example, a rare characteristic may not be statistically significant (p-value not smaller than the conventional criterion of 5%), despite a similar regression coefficient as a more frequent characteristic.

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