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Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making by Harold C. Sox, Jr., MD, Annals of Internal Medicine, American College of Physicians
       
        
Author Biography
Introduction
Part I: Probability Theory
Case Study 1 - Patient History
Bayes' Theorem
Methods for Estimating Pre-test Probability
 Estimating Likelihood Ratios
 Estimating Sensitivity and Specificity of Tests
  Interpreting Test Results
Calculating Post-test Probabilities
 Post-test Probabilities in Clinical Practice
 Conclusions: Case Study 1
Part II: Expected Value Decision Making
 Case Study 2 - Patient History
 Using a Decision Tree
 Assigning Utility
 Expected Value & QALYs
 Sensitivity Analysis
 Conclusions: Case Study 2
Part III: Factoring Age and Co-morbidity into Decisions
Principles of Screening in the Elderly
 Case Study 3 - Patient Histories
 Simplified Method for Estimating Life Expectancy
 Practical Approach to Screening Decisions
 Calculating the Impact of Co-morbid Illness
 Adjusting Life Expectancy for Co-morbid Illness
References
Figures Tables Problems Questions
Figure 1.5.1
Figure 2.3.1
Figure 2.4.1
Figure 2.4.2
Figure 2.5.1
Figure 2.5.1a
Figure 2.5.1b
Figure 2.5.2
Figure 2.5.2a
Figure 2.5.2b
Figure 2.5.2c
Figure 2.5.2d
Figure 3.4.1
Figure 3.6.1
Figure 3.7.1
Figure 3.7.2
Table 1.5.1
Table 1.5.2
Table 1.7.1
Table 1.8.1
Table 1.9.1
Table 1.10.1
Table 2.4.1
Table 3.2.1
Table 3.4.1
Table 3.4.2
Problem 1.10.1
Problem 1.10.2
Problem 2.4.1
Problem 2.4.2
Problem 2.5.1
Question 1.4.1
Question 1.4.2
Question 1.5.1
Question 1.5.2
Question 1.5.3
Question 1.5.4
Question 1.9.1
Question 1.10.1.1
Question 1.10.1.2
Question 1.10.2.1
Question 1.10.2.2
Question 1.10.2.3
Question 2.2.1
Question 2.3.1
Question 2.3.2
Question 2.3.3
Question 2.3.4
Question 2.4.1
Question 2.5.1
Question 2.5.2