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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Part I
Expected Value Decision Making
Case Study 2: Patient History
Currently selected section: Using a Decision Tree
Assigning Utility
Expected Value and QALYs
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions: Case Study 2
Part III

References


Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Using a Decision Tree
        
Figure 2.3.1: Simple Decision Tree for Medical Versus Surgical Treatment
Graphic depiction of simple decision tree for medical versus surgical treatment where the first decision is surgery or medication. For the medication choice, life expectancy equals 5. For the surgery choice, the options are either: OK where life expectancy equals 10; or die, where the life expectancy equals 0. The number symbol is under OK on the surgery decision path. The value of the probability represented by # is 1 minus the sum of the probabilities of the other events at the chance node. In this case, it is 1 minus 0.05 or 0.95.

 

Question 2.3.3

Which of the two decision alternatives has the highest expected value?

Selection AThe surgery option
Selection BThe medical option
Selection CThe two options are equal

 


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