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Tools for Decision Making Sections
Author Bio
Introduction
Part I
Expected Value Decision Making
Case Study 2: Patient History
Currently selected section: Using a Decision Tree
Assigning Utility
Expected Value and QALYs
Sensitivity Analysis
Conclusions: Case Study 2
Part III

References


Chapter 14: Tools for Decision Making: Using a Decision Tree
        
Figure 2.3.1: Simple Decision Tree for Medical Versus Surgical Treatment
Graphic depiction of simple decision tree for medical versus surgical treatment where the first decision is surgery or medication. For the medication choice, life expectancy equals 5. For the surgery choice, the options are either: OK where life expectancy equals 10; or die, where the life expectancy equals 0. The number symbol is under OK on the surgery decision path. The value of the probability represented by # is 1 minus the sum of the probabilities of the other events at the chance node. In this case, it is 1 minus 0.05 or 0.95.


Question 2.3.2

How would you calculate the expected value at the chance node?

Selection AAdd the values of the two outcomes, each weighted by its probability of occurrence
Selection BAdd the values of the two outcomes, and subtract the weighted probability of occurrence
Selection C Multiple the value of each outcome by its probability of occurrence
Selection DMultiple the value of each outcome by its probability of occurrence and divide by 2

 


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