|
The purpose of decision
analysis is to help to choose between two or more actions, each
of which can lead to several possible outcomes, with chance determining
the outcome experienced by an individual patient.
Its principal use is
to clarify choices that have not been studied in a controlled
trial, but it can be useful even when randomized trial results
favor one treatment over another.
| Definition
of Expected Value
|
|---|
| Expected
value is the value of an intervention when the outcomes
of that intervention are averaged over many patients.
An "expected-outcome decision maker" chooses
the treatment that gives the best outcome when averaged
over many patients. |
|
An expected-outcome
decision maker would decide between medical management of stable
angina, coronary angioplasty, or coronary artery bypass surgery
by calculating a patient's life expectancy, expressed in years
in good health, after undergoing each of these treatment options.
In the case study that
follows, you will see how expected-outcome decision making might
be used to solve a hypothetical decision problem.
|